Although it hasn’t made much news inside Kazakhstan, for several months yet again oil workers have been striking in Western Kazakhstan. Now they have come to Astana to ask the President to step in and resolve the problem.

Before commentators start saying that that appeal didn’t do any good, I have heard from various people variously related to the oil companies that the oil workers have had quite a few of their demands met including wages of 300,000 tenge a month (around $2000). As @joshuafoust argues, their high wages may be one reason they aren’t garnering huge amounts of sympathy inside Kazakhstan. The oil company managers aren’t quite sure what else they can do, as no matter what they give them they want more.

Apparently having two printers and a computer and laptop are suspicious and newsworthy. Or printing lots of religious materials! Wow, the Catholic Church near my parents’ house would be in real trouble then.

However, the Kazakhstan Embassy’s take that it was due to the fact that Kazakhstan is too developed to need Peace Corps volunteers doesn’t ring completely true.

In any case, I know many students who loved to tell me stories about a Peace Corps volunteer they met or were taught by. I know they were grateful. And I know that the PCV’s I met were a great bunch of people.

In any case, this is extremely disturbing news to those of us who always saw Kazakhstan as a peaceful country. While I certainly am not surprised that the new law ruffled feathers, I wouldn’t have wished this terror on anyone. The only good news is that thus far, the bombings seem to be aimed at getting attention and frightening people but not hurting anyone.

As with so many other things, a huge part if why thus law is offensive us that Kazakhstsn continues to claim to be the home of religious tolerance. One wonders if many religions that send representatives to the World Religion Congress will be legal in Kazakhstsn soon. There can’t be that many Zen Buddhists in Kazakhstan, for example, or Shintoists. How could Kazakhstan invite leaders of those churches to Astana if they declared those same religions illegal?

So the real problem with this bill is that not only will churches be judged by arbitrary criteria like how many people belong to the church ( Jesus and his 13 apostles would be SOL as would Mohammed and his wife and daughters), but that previously approved churches will gave to be reregistered. And that religious literature will gave to be approved by the government. What kind of education prepares a government official to judge all religious documents?

But the real problem here is that none of these provisions seem like they will do much to prevent terrorism or violent crime, the purported aim of this law. Large churches and small alike have sponsored and inspired religious violence and subversion. Nothing in this law seems to address law enforcement or surveillance or crime-prevention. Rather it invents a whole new set of ways that religious organizations can break the law. It’s a bit like trying to go after the Mafia by demanding that all Italian restaurants redo their health inspections. And insofar as there have been indications that religious groups in Kazakhstan have become radicalized because of state repression, I’m unclear how it will help to pass new law that could be perceived as more state repression.

As the HuffPo piece says, two previous attempts to pass a stricter religion law were blocked by the Constitutional Council. So it’s possible the President will not sign this one.

One citizen of Kazakhstan, Arman Turdaliyev, left a comment on Karim Massimov’s blog recently, saying that the only way to stop China from taking over Kazakhstan slowly was by preventing all foreign marriages.

Dear Karim Kazhimkanovich!
As a patriot of my country, I am concerned about her safety.
Citizens of other countries seek to enter Kazakhstan and become citizens by all means possible. The most popular method is to marry to a citizen of Kazakhstan. Many Kazakh women from Almaty (for financial reasons) do this almost automatically. In Almaty, thousands of Chinese have thus been granted citizenship like this
I propose to make the following law:
“If a citizen enters Kazakhstan married to a citizen of another country, he (the citizen of Kazakhstan) automatically loses their citizenship. Moreover, a citizen of another country, in this case, will not receive the citizenship of Kazakhstan.”
After the adoption of this law, China “quiet” expansion into Kazakhstan will be stopped as well as other disadvantaged countries (South-East Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Caucasus).
Only in ways we can survive in the neighborhood with such monsters.
Sincerely,
Arman

As Eurasianet points out, it’s hard to square such extremist views with Kazakhstan’s image as a country of tolerance and inter-ethnic peace. And as Express-K points out, Arman’s paranoia is quite unfounded as China is in 14th place by popularity of marriage (Kazakhstani most commonly marry Russian citizens, the only country that HAS attacked or invaded Kazakhstan in recent history. And the only country that ever conquered and ruled Kazakhstan). Only 5.7% of all marriages in Kazakhstan in 2010 were to a foreign citizen anyway. One also wonders if this law would work to prevent international marriages, or if it would simply lead to more Kazakhs giving up their citizenship.

But everyone has a right to their opinions, I suppose. And paranoid racist cranks appear everywhere. What is interesting is that Massimov did not respond to Arman by saying that such a law would violate human rights or be unenforceable or that it wouldn’t affect relations with China. Instead he sent it to the Ministry of the Interior for consideration. I can’t find it on Massimov’s blog, but here it is on the Min Interior’s blog:

Note that the Ministry of the Interior deals with law enforcement and policing matters. As opposed to the Ministry of Justice which deals with legal matters such as marriages and business registrations. So it’s a pretty serious step to send it to him.

Now, I have complete faith that nothing will come of this, but it is interesting that the PM couldn’t reject it outright and it went so far as to be noted in the Western, English-speaking press.

Let us not forget that Raxat Aliyev had a blog on LJ for a while until Live Journal agreed to delete it.

Apparently the decision was made at the request of government prosecutors who felt that foreign sites were inciting people to acts of terrorism. I suppose I have to hold off judgement until the full list of sites is published, if it ever is. But in the meantime, it appears that the Prime Minister is getting involved. In response to a tweet from Alexei Venediktov, a journalist in Russia, Massimov wrote, “Re: LJ, I’ll deal with it”

Now following recent comments by Yermukamet Yertisbayev that Timur Kulibayev would be the right person to take over in case the President was unexpectedly able to serve, they give the impression that advisers to the President can say whatever they want.

Now Yertisbayev says that he was just giving his own opinion [RU] and did not consult with the President. He cites the Constitution which gives citizens the right to express their opinion and even confirms that his over the age of majority. So it appears that in the administration of the President, public servants are free to say whatever they want to the press. Almost every job I have ever had, I have been required to sign a code of conduct that said I had no right to make statements to the press on behalf of the company without prior authorization. But apparently Nazarbayev’s rules for his administration is much laxer than the rules for a dishwasher at McDonald’s; It’s a bit hard to believe. Alternatively Yertisbayev acted unprofessionally, which would seem to be grounds for dismissal or at least reprimand. He himself admits that it was wrong of him to name Kulibayev because of his status as public servant. So if he truly was giving his own opinion, one assumes he will soon be announcing that he is stepping down as advisor.

And perhaps when the next big rumor gets going, the administration will choose to be open and honest with the people of Kazakhstan, or at least give their cover story a bit more thought.

Yertysbayev is the first government official to say that the President was in fact in hospital in Germany, but that it was just a routine check-up.

But what people are focusing on is that Yertisbayev suggested that Ablyazov targeted Kulibayev precisely because he is the only one who can carry on his father-in-law’s strategy in the event of his “sudden departure”.

The full exchange on this (Google translated because of time restrictions):

Following the appointment of Timur Kulibayev head the National Welfare Fund “Samruk Kazyna”, which generates about 53% of GDP in Kazakhstan, many experts have suggested that Nazarbayev is preparing to succeed him. What are his chances? And why is it Mukhtar Ablyazov chose a prime target, though, as a successor is often called other names?

- Honestly, I would not, in principle, to speculate about his successor. Recently I had a conversation with the president. It is up to December 2016 is the president, he is full of vigor and energy, he has big plans for industrial-innovative development of the country, so we are going to talk hypothetically, what if this happens. You look at what the main target of attacks by Ablyazov in the past two years. This Kulibayev. Ablyazov attacks him constantly, catapulted into the information field, a lot of incriminating material Timur Kulibayev frankly libelous, which were not confirmed. He is trying to discredit him in the eyes of the elite, to show that Kulibayev absolutely can not be in the role of the head. Trying to show the futility of his in the literal sense. And that means only one thing: that Kulibayev is the main obstacle and now the main enemy Ablyazov. Because it is clear that man can never forgive such things are already done in his address Ablyazov. And Ablyazov knows that in the event of an emergency situation related to the sudden departure of head of state, namely Kulibayev be able to continue the strategic course of the president, to continue and maintain basic directions of state-political system, embodied in the constitution of 1995, which is called “Nazarbayev.” From this point of view Kulibayev and Mukhtar Ablyazov and Rahat Aliev, and for others, so to speak, of refugees is a great danger if not, then at least a lot of trouble. Because I know Timur Kulibayev well. He graduated from the Economics Faculty of Moscow State University, was one of the best students, has a systemic thinking has vast managerial experience gained not only during the “Samruk Kazyna”, but much earlier. Although he has worked in government and was Governor of the region, but has the experience it through the prism of state and political management. Therefore, I believe that the attacks are caused primarily Ablyazov this circumstance.

It’s not quite the clear and ringing endorsement that other news sources are making it out to be; Even the title of the article takes the quote out of context to make it sound much more dramatic.

But the fact that the adviser to the President would name any names is rather striking. Yertysbayev’s speculations and ideas are often uncannily prophetic. It sometimes seems that his role is to announce some of the more extreme or politically risky plans of the Presidents. Then if they are badly received, it’s easy enough to say that Yertysbayev was just giving his own opinion. So I would guess that Yertysbayev is throwing Kulibayev’s name out to see how the world reacts.

I say the world because it’s also significant that this interview was conducted with a Russian newspaper. One might think Nazarbayev’s successor would be named in the Kazakhstan media first. I suspect that this announcement was mainly to allay the fears of Russian and Western leaders and investors, not to address the citizens of Kazakhstan.

A final issue is, of course, the fact that the Constitution clearly spells out the succession if something happens to the President. Rather than reminding the world that Kazakhstan, as a law-abiding democratic state, has stable laws, this interview throws a monkey wrench into the law code. For trivia buffs, the line of succession is Chairman of the Senate, then Chairman of the Mazhilis, then Prime Minister.

So as usual for Kazakhstan, even public forums are used secretively to sort of kind of indicate a possible direction for starting to think about something that might happen, unless it doesn’t.

It seems to me that there are a lot of unscary possibilities here:

1) Some famous Kazakh guy is in the hospital and German tabloid reporters are just assuming it’s the President.

2) Nazarbayev is getting a physical or some routine exam. Possibly he regularly goes to Germany for such things. The press rarely reports on his going to the doctor.

3) It’s a complete lie.

In any case, since a million Russian and English language papers are reporting on this, it’s no wonder he tried to keep it secret if indeed he is in the hospital. I think it’s a bit early to panic.