Now following recent comments by Yermukamet Yertisbayev that Timur Kulibayev would be the right person to take over in case the President was unexpectedly able to serve, they give the impression that advisers to the President can say whatever they want.

Now Yertisbayev says that he was just giving his own opinion [RU] and did not consult with the President. He cites the Constitution which gives citizens the right to express their opinion and even confirms that his over the age of majority. So it appears that in the administration of the President, public servants are free to say whatever they want to the press. Almost every job I have ever had, I have been required to sign a code of conduct that said I had no right to make statements to the press on behalf of the company without prior authorization. But apparently Nazarbayev’s rules for his administration is much laxer than the rules for a dishwasher at McDonald’s; It’s a bit hard to believe. Alternatively Yertisbayev acted unprofessionally, which would seem to be grounds for dismissal or at least reprimand. He himself admits that it was wrong of him to name Kulibayev because of his status as public servant. So if he truly was giving his own opinion, one assumes he will soon be announcing that he is stepping down as advisor.

And perhaps when the next big rumor gets going, the administration will choose to be open and honest with the people of Kazakhstan, or at least give their cover story a bit more thought.

Yertysbayev is the first government official to say that the President was in fact in hospital in Germany, but that it was just a routine check-up.

But what people are focusing on is that Yertisbayev suggested that Ablyazov targeted Kulibayev precisely because he is the only one who can carry on his father-in-law’s strategy in the event of his “sudden departure”.

The full exchange on this (Google translated because of time restrictions):

Following the appointment of Timur Kulibayev head the National Welfare Fund “Samruk Kazyna”, which generates about 53% of GDP in Kazakhstan, many experts have suggested that Nazarbayev is preparing to succeed him. What are his chances? And why is it Mukhtar Ablyazov chose a prime target, though, as a successor is often called other names?

- Honestly, I would not, in principle, to speculate about his successor. Recently I had a conversation with the president. It is up to December 2016 is the president, he is full of vigor and energy, he has big plans for industrial-innovative development of the country, so we are going to talk hypothetically, what if this happens. You look at what the main target of attacks by Ablyazov in the past two years. This Kulibayev. Ablyazov attacks him constantly, catapulted into the information field, a lot of incriminating material Timur Kulibayev frankly libelous, which were not confirmed. He is trying to discredit him in the eyes of the elite, to show that Kulibayev absolutely can not be in the role of the head. Trying to show the futility of his in the literal sense. And that means only one thing: that Kulibayev is the main obstacle and now the main enemy Ablyazov. Because it is clear that man can never forgive such things are already done in his address Ablyazov. And Ablyazov knows that in the event of an emergency situation related to the sudden departure of head of state, namely Kulibayev be able to continue the strategic course of the president, to continue and maintain basic directions of state-political system, embodied in the constitution of 1995, which is called “Nazarbayev.” From this point of view Kulibayev and Mukhtar Ablyazov and Rahat Aliev, and for others, so to speak, of refugees is a great danger if not, then at least a lot of trouble. Because I know Timur Kulibayev well. He graduated from the Economics Faculty of Moscow State University, was one of the best students, has a systemic thinking has vast managerial experience gained not only during the “Samruk Kazyna”, but much earlier. Although he has worked in government and was Governor of the region, but has the experience it through the prism of state and political management. Therefore, I believe that the attacks are caused primarily Ablyazov this circumstance.

It’s not quite the clear and ringing endorsement that other news sources are making it out to be; Even the title of the article takes the quote out of context to make it sound much more dramatic.

But the fact that the adviser to the President would name any names is rather striking. Yertysbayev’s speculations and ideas are often uncannily prophetic. It sometimes seems that his role is to announce some of the more extreme or politically risky plans of the Presidents. Then if they are badly received, it’s easy enough to say that Yertysbayev was just giving his own opinion. So I would guess that Yertysbayev is throwing Kulibayev’s name out to see how the world reacts.

I say the world because it’s also significant that this interview was conducted with a Russian newspaper. One might think Nazarbayev’s successor would be named in the Kazakhstan media first. I suspect that this announcement was mainly to allay the fears of Russian and Western leaders and investors, not to address the citizens of Kazakhstan.

A final issue is, of course, the fact that the Constitution clearly spells out the succession if something happens to the President. Rather than reminding the world that Kazakhstan, as a law-abiding democratic state, has stable laws, this interview throws a monkey wrench into the law code. For trivia buffs, the line of succession is Chairman of the Senate, then Chairman of the Mazhilis, then Prime Minister.

So as usual for Kazakhstan, even public forums are used secretively to sort of kind of indicate a possible direction for starting to think about something that might happen, unless it doesn’t.

The site features the slogan, “Better the naked truth than a well-dressed lie”

Haven’t had time to peruse her site in detail, but the headlines cover problems with the oil industry in the west, high mortgages, questions about the Nurbank controversy and links to blogs by Zhovtis and Abilov. So she isn’t shying away from touchy issues.

Any thoughts on this from other media savvy readers?

Glencore, a private Switzerland-based commodities trader, the biggest company you’ve never heard of, is a joint owner of KazZinc with Verny Capital, run by Utermuratov. Recently Glencore announced they would buy out Verny Capital’s 42.3% share for around US$3.2 billion, which would make Utermuratov around $2 billion (so they say). Now it looks like they’ll be trading cash for gold, by using the money to buy shares in Altyntau Gold, currently owned by Glencore and headed by Utermuratov’s son.

Business is apparently a good business.

According to the report, Nadezhda Gerasimova, deputy chairperson of the Duma, believes that the best way to keep peace in the Central Asian region is 1) the presence and consolidation of international organizations that Russia participates in, 2) more Russian investment, 3) the protection of Russian citizens above all, and 4) excluding third parties.

Alexei Ostrovskiy, chairperson of the Committee for CIS affairs, believes the situation is “extremely alarming” as the population of Central Asia is growing fast, tribal relations are strong, and many people live in poverty. Only the opportunity to send labor migrants to Russia has prevented a “social explosion”. Russia’s strategy should be to exploit the “part of the political elite in the region [which] is pro-Russian”.

Other members pointed to the need for cooperation with the US, the EU and other countries and organizations active in the region to prevent serious conflicts and raise the living standards of the population of Central Asia.

Kazahstan Today lists the ministers who kept their jobs:
Adilbek Dzhaksybekov – Minister of Defence
Askar Zhumagaliyev – Minister of Communications and Information
Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov – Minister of Education and Science
Salidat Kairbekova – Minister of Health
Gulshara Abdykalikova – Minister of Labour and Social Welfare
Bolat Zhamishev – Minister of Finance
Nurgali Ashimov – Minister of Environment
Mukhtar Kul-Muhammed – Minister of Culture
Sauat Mynbayev – Minister of Oil and Gas
Vladimir Bojko – Minister of Emergency Situations
Asset Issekeshev – Minister of Industry and Trade and Vice-Prime Minister
As I already wrote, new cabinet members include:
Kairat Kelimbetov – Minister of the Economy
Yerzhan Kazykhanov – Minister of Foreign Affairs
Asylzhan Mamytbekov – Minister of Agriculture

Newer appointees include:
Talgat Ermegiyaev – Minister of Tourism and Sports (formerly Vice-Minister)
Kasymov Kalmuhanbeta – Minister of Internal Affairs (former head of Department of Internal Affairs in East Kazakhstan oblast)
Berwick Kamal – Minister of Transport and Communications (former Vice-Minister of Industry and Trade)

Only the question of the Minister of Justice remains unresolved.

It looks like the akims will all stay in place. Deputy Prime Ministers and Vice Prime Ministers didn’t change either. Shukayev and Umarov will keep their jobs. And Saudebayev was in fact re-appointed to the post of State Secretary.

Any other new or rumours out there?

The “opposition” party will basically be the Atameken Union, headed by Timur Kulibayev, son-in-law of the President and deputy head of Samruk-Kazyna (unless the new head replaces him), as well as chairman of KazMunaiGas, Kazatomprom and Kazakhstan Temir Zholi. Several government officials sit on its Presidium. Atameken Union is currently a business organization, not a political party. It is also not to be confused with the opposition Atameken Party whose site has apparently been hacked as I just discovered.

In an interview with Megapolis Yertysbayev stated that all is normal in Kazakhstan because the Parliament is loyal to the President, and it could not be any other way.

As for forming a new party, it was an idea that occurred to him spontaneously after the weak showing of the opposition in the recent presidential elections. He states that it will help in the fight against corruption:

…We have a huge problem: power and business in Kazakhstan are closely intertwined, and this is the basis of corruption, and many other negative phenomena. And we could divide power and business. It is very important! As soon as we divide the government and business, everything will fall into place: there will be more order and corruption will be much decreased. That is, everyone will want to follow the rules, follow the laws. It is very important. I would call it a “revolution from above”.

But Reuters reports that Kairat Kelimbetov has been named Minister of the Economy, leaving his position as head of Samruk-Kazyna Holding wide open.

And the Minister of Foreign Affairs is now Yerzhan Kazykhanov, who was deputy minister. Former Foreign Minister, Kanat Saudabayev, will probably stay on in his other role as Government Secretary.

Asylzhan Mamytbekov, who had been head of the holding company KazAgro, will be Minister of Agriculture.

So three ministerial announcements and two big holding companies with top jobs open…

I’m hoping this might a sort of public forum where civil servants and government agencies that don’t perform well will be outed publicly and information about what is being done to make the government more open and transparent will be posted.

In his speech, the President thanked the people for reelecting him and listed the world leaders who had congratulated him on his victory (conspicuously absent from the list were Obama, Ban-Ki Moon and Cameron). He also claimed that these elections had been the best organized and most democratic in the history of not only Kazakhstan, but Central Asia. In particular he noted that the campaigns had lacked any kind of mudslinging or “black PR”. Given that insulting or dishonoring the Leader of the Nation is a crime in Kazakhstan, it’s not surprising that none of the other candidates heavily criticized Nazarbayev, however. He also claimed that political reforms were progressing in Kazakhstan faster than in more established democracies and promised to initiate reforms to give more power to Parliament and local governments.

Most of the speech was given to noting the progress that Kazakhstan has made in its 20 years of independence, including noting that Kazakhstan is already in the fifty most competitive countries in a number of areas including size of national reserves.

The inauguration was followed by a meeting where the Government tended its resignations. And shortly thereafter Karim Masimov was reappointed as Prime Minister by Parliament, making him the longest-serving Prime Minister in Kazakhstan’s history. Kazakhstan has had 7 Prime Ministers (I believe) in 20 years of independence, with an average term of just under 3 years and Masimov is well into his fourth year.

So far none of the other cabinet posts have been filled. However a few days before the inauguration, the national oil company, KazMunaiGas appointed Askar Balzhanov as General Director, moving Kenzhebekov Ibrashev off to some other part of the company. Balzhanov comes from inside KazMunaiGas, so I’m not sure this news bodes too much.

Now we enter the land of rumor and speculation–who will stay on, who will move up, who will move down and of course, who is being positioned to enter Parliament in 2012 when the next elections will be held.