Now following recent comments by Yermukamet Yertisbayev that Timur Kulibayev would be the right person to take over in case the President was unexpectedly able to serve, they give the impression that advisers to the President can say whatever they want.

Now Yertisbayev says that he was just giving his own opinion [RU] and did not consult with the President. He cites the Constitution which gives citizens the right to express their opinion and even confirms that his over the age of majority. So it appears that in the administration of the President, public servants are free to say whatever they want to the press. Almost every job I have ever had, I have been required to sign a code of conduct that said I had no right to make statements to the press on behalf of the company without prior authorization. But apparently Nazarbayev’s rules for his administration is much laxer than the rules for a dishwasher at McDonald’s; It’s a bit hard to believe. Alternatively Yertisbayev acted unprofessionally, which would seem to be grounds for dismissal or at least reprimand. He himself admits that it was wrong of him to name Kulibayev because of his status as public servant. So if he truly was giving his own opinion, one assumes he will soon be announcing that he is stepping down as advisor.

And perhaps when the next big rumor gets going, the administration will choose to be open and honest with the people of Kazakhstan, or at least give their cover story a bit more thought.

Yertysbayev is the first government official to say that the President was in fact in hospital in Germany, but that it was just a routine check-up.

But what people are focusing on is that Yertisbayev suggested that Ablyazov targeted Kulibayev precisely because he is the only one who can carry on his father-in-law’s strategy in the event of his “sudden departure”.

The full exchange on this (Google translated because of time restrictions):

Following the appointment of Timur Kulibayev head the National Welfare Fund “Samruk Kazyna”, which generates about 53% of GDP in Kazakhstan, many experts have suggested that Nazarbayev is preparing to succeed him. What are his chances? And why is it Mukhtar Ablyazov chose a prime target, though, as a successor is often called other names?

- Honestly, I would not, in principle, to speculate about his successor. Recently I had a conversation with the president. It is up to December 2016 is the president, he is full of vigor and energy, he has big plans for industrial-innovative development of the country, so we are going to talk hypothetically, what if this happens. You look at what the main target of attacks by Ablyazov in the past two years. This Kulibayev. Ablyazov attacks him constantly, catapulted into the information field, a lot of incriminating material Timur Kulibayev frankly libelous, which were not confirmed. He is trying to discredit him in the eyes of the elite, to show that Kulibayev absolutely can not be in the role of the head. Trying to show the futility of his in the literal sense. And that means only one thing: that Kulibayev is the main obstacle and now the main enemy Ablyazov. Because it is clear that man can never forgive such things are already done in his address Ablyazov. And Ablyazov knows that in the event of an emergency situation related to the sudden departure of head of state, namely Kulibayev be able to continue the strategic course of the president, to continue and maintain basic directions of state-political system, embodied in the constitution of 1995, which is called “Nazarbayev.” From this point of view Kulibayev and Mukhtar Ablyazov and Rahat Aliev, and for others, so to speak, of refugees is a great danger if not, then at least a lot of trouble. Because I know Timur Kulibayev well. He graduated from the Economics Faculty of Moscow State University, was one of the best students, has a systemic thinking has vast managerial experience gained not only during the “Samruk Kazyna”, but much earlier. Although he has worked in government and was Governor of the region, but has the experience it through the prism of state and political management. Therefore, I believe that the attacks are caused primarily Ablyazov this circumstance.

It’s not quite the clear and ringing endorsement that other news sources are making it out to be; Even the title of the article takes the quote out of context to make it sound much more dramatic.

But the fact that the adviser to the President would name any names is rather striking. Yertysbayev’s speculations and ideas are often uncannily prophetic. It sometimes seems that his role is to announce some of the more extreme or politically risky plans of the Presidents. Then if they are badly received, it’s easy enough to say that Yertysbayev was just giving his own opinion. So I would guess that Yertysbayev is throwing Kulibayev’s name out to see how the world reacts.

I say the world because it’s also significant that this interview was conducted with a Russian newspaper. One might think Nazarbayev’s successor would be named in the Kazakhstan media first. I suspect that this announcement was mainly to allay the fears of Russian and Western leaders and investors, not to address the citizens of Kazakhstan.

A final issue is, of course, the fact that the Constitution clearly spells out the succession if something happens to the President. Rather than reminding the world that Kazakhstan, as a law-abiding democratic state, has stable laws, this interview throws a monkey wrench into the law code. For trivia buffs, the line of succession is Chairman of the Senate, then Chairman of the Mazhilis, then Prime Minister.

So as usual for Kazakhstan, even public forums are used secretively to sort of kind of indicate a possible direction for starting to think about something that might happen, unless it doesn’t.

It seems to me that there are a lot of unscary possibilities here:

1) Some famous Kazakh guy is in the hospital and German tabloid reporters are just assuming it’s the President.

2) Nazarbayev is getting a physical or some routine exam. Possibly he regularly goes to Germany for such things. The press rarely reports on his going to the doctor.

3) It’s a complete lie.

In any case, since a million Russian and English language papers are reporting on this, it’s no wonder he tried to keep it secret if indeed he is in the hospital. I think it’s a bit early to panic.

We would like 100% of those who will start learning Kazakh language in the first class to be able to speak Kazakh. I am sure this will happen,” Nazarbayev said at a meeting of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan.
He emphasized that over 80 percent of the residents of the country should be able to speak the national language by 2017.
“The knowledge of Kazakh language is not just a sound bite, it means that the people will also know the history of our country, the history of the Kazakh people…This will help consolidate the people of Kazakhstan and boost mutual confidence day after day.

At the same time he acknowledged some of the issues of going too fast, citing the problem of clinics and hospitals where signs are all in Kazakh, making it impossible for non-Kazakh speakers to find doctors and treatment rooms:

People come to a new clinic. And there all the signs in the doctors’ offices are in the Kazakh language only – from overenthusiastic officials from the Ministry of Health. So patients walk around as if in a labyrinth and don’t know how to get to the right doctor

He acknowledged that the goal of increasing the percent of the population that speaks Kazakh was better served by educating the young generation, rather than taxing the older generation with learning or relearing a new language. This seems like a reasonable approach to avoid alienating Russians, Ukrainians and other ethnicities who have lived their whole lives in Kazakhstan, while at the same time promoting the state language.

According to a review by Eurasianet, the film does portray little Sultan (as Nazarbayev is called by friends and families) as a happy child with a strong and caring family, doing genuine Kazkh things like hunting with falcons, riding horses, and playing the dombro. It also includes a scene where Sultan builds a city out of stones, foreshadowing the construction of Astana.

However it also does look at some of the more serious historical events that shaped the Kazakh SSR at the time, such as the Great Patriotic War, the forced deportation of Chechnyans and other Caucus peoples to Kazakhstan, and forced collectivization of the Kazakh nomads.

I’ll probably wait for it to come out on DVD on the off-chance it has English subtitles, or at least so I can replay bits I don’t get the first time, but it is playing in theaters in Kazakhstan now.

And reports are already out that exit polls show Nazarbayev winning with 94.82%. Gani Kasymov came in second with 2.17%. The Communist Party candidate, Zhambyl Akhmetbekov, had 1.57% and Mels Yeleusizov came in last 1.44 percent, according to the poll. It could have been 1.450001 if he had decided to vote for himself. The exit poll was conducted by the Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists of Kazakhstan. Official results are predicted to be coming in before noon today.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/n78sM1pl04I

While the stars claim that their desire to make this video was purely voluntary, it does coincide with the administration’s message. The opposition is pushing a campaign to boycott the vote. Having garnered 5 million signatures in support of the referendum, it would be embarrassing for the President if he didn’t get around the same number of votes in the election. If the opposition can keep voter turnout low, it will cast into doubt Nazarbayev’s claim that he has a mandate from the population of Kazakahstan.

In any case, it is hard to be against a message to encourage young people to vote, even if none of the candidates are to their liking

Presumably, if no amendments to the Constitution are proposed, the winner of this election will serve from 2011 to 2016, a five-year term. Commentators note that the referendum brought together a coalition of Nurotan and other pro-Presidential parties and groups which can now be easily used to campaign effectively for Nazarbayev. It is unlikely that the opposition will be able to put together such a strong campaign machine in two months.

He spoke from Akorda in front of the Prime Minister, the Cabinet Ministers and other government officials.